June Oscar Predictions

There's a lot that's changed since my last predictions. Most notably, the nominee list for Best Picture has expanded from five films, to ten. So here are my new predictions.

Best Picture
-Amelia
Hillary Swank + Mira Nair + Amelia Earhart Biopic + Period piece = Indisputable Oscar Bait. The only question left is whether or not it's actually going to be good. Though if The Reader could crack the top five as a mediocre film, Amelia could be terrible and still crack the top 10.
-Avatar
Okay, so maybe the film does not seem like Oscar material. This is also made harder by the fact that next to nothing is known about this film. Though look at it more carefully you'll see tht it could be. You have James Cameron directing a film right up his alley. It seems to be a very visual film. If Cameron can exercises his old magic, this could be as big as Titanic, or even Aliens or T2.
-The Hurt Locker
The reviews for this film have been on par with Up. Only 2% less critic support (according to Rotten Tomatoes.) It was even getting praise last year. It scored two nominations at last years Independent Spirit Awards (for Best Actor, Jeremy Renner, and Best Supporting Actor, Anthony Mackie.) It may be the one Iraq film to be able to crack this category,
-Invictus
This film screams Oscar. A Nelson Mandela biopic starring Morgan Freeman, and Matt Damon, directed by Clint Eastwood. You've got a gallery of Oscar winners, and a great story. This combination doesn't always succeed, but the odds are in favor of Eastwood.
-The Lovely Bones
A beloved novel with Peter Jackson behind direction, and co writing. An all star cast including Mark Whalberg, Rachel Weisz, Soarise Ronan, Stanley Tucci, and Susan Surandon. I can't say it'll win anything, but there's a safe bet that the film will go far.
-Nine
This is one film (along with Invictus and The Lovely Bones) that has been in contenton since the beginning of the year's Oscar race, and for good reason. You have Rob Marshall, the director of Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha. A combined total of 19 Oscar nominations between those two films. Not only that, you've got a cast that is truly remarkable. Filled with Academy Award winners and nominees (Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Penelope Cruz, Sophie Loren, Marion Cotilard, Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson, etc.) A shoe-in for all for of the technical categories. What more could you want?
-Precious
Sometimes this thing called "The Oprah Effect" can muddle the equation, and influence the outcome of the Oscars. An example of this is the much disputed Crash over Brokeback Mountain contreversy. This has sort of happened with this film. Though maybe it won't need that. On one hand, a story about illiterate black kids isn't exactly Oscar material, but the word from Cannes has been good. I'm a little excited for it.
-Public Enemies
Michael Mann is a hit or miss director. Though he's had more success' (The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, Manhunter, The Insider, Collateral) than misses (Miami Vice.) The reviews are pointing somewhere in the middle. Only 61% on Rotten Tomatoes, but films like Babel, The Reader, Crash, Forrest Gump, and Dances with Wolves have gotten mediocre reviews and still won Oscars. It's got Johnny Depp, arguably the biggest actor in Hollywood, maybe America. It's a period piece, and there's been good word on Marion Cotilard and Billy Crudup in supporting roles.
-Shutter Island
Marty's first film since The Departed, with his new man, Leo. A story based off of the Dennis Lehane novel, which always seem to be critical success'. A cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Mark Ruffalo, Emily Mortimer, Ben Kingsley, Michelle Williams, and Jackie Earle Haley. I just feel that it'll do well.
-Up
It's the most critically acclaimed widely distributed film this year. It's a Pixar film that is probaly going to take the prize for Best Animated Feature. It's the only potential nominee I've seen, so I can say that it's a truly great work. I enjoyed it, as has everyone else that I know who has seen it. Could it be the first animated film since the 1990 Beauty and the Beast to be nominated for the top prizef? More importantly, can it take the top prize? The only thing that is stopping it is that it may be overshadowed by its own category.
Alt: Bright Star or An Education

Best Director
-Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
If the Academy likes the film, maybe they'll honor its director with a nomination.
-James Cameron for Avatar
Evem if the film doesn't crack the top 10 (for whatever reason) James Caomeron is a solid director, and should be able to work his way here.
-Lee Daniels for Precious
If he shows that he's made a great film, he may recieve a nomination.
-Peter Jackson for The Lovely Bones
Well, why not? He's Peter Jackson. He adapted one of the greatest literary pieces of all time to the silver screen. An accomplishment deemed impossible by many. He remade King Kong into a better film. I say that he was snubbed for this category in '06. If he can do the same thing here, he's a shoe-in. In fact, his nomination is probably the safest bet.
-Martin Scorsese for Shutter Island
He probably has the least likely chance of being nominated here, but if the film is success, then he may get in here.
Alt: Terry Gillian for The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus or Rob Marshall for Nine

Best Actor in a Leading Role
-Johnny Depp for Public Enemies
-Leonardo DiCaprio for Shutter Island
-Morgan Freeman for Invictus
-Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
-Mark Whalberg for The Lovely Bones
Alt: Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine or Viggo Mortensen for The Road

Best Actress in a Leading Role
-Penelope Cruz for Broken Embraces
-Carey Mulligan for An Educaton
-Michelle Phifer for Cheri
-Soarise Ronan for The Lovely Bones
-Hillary Swank for Amelia
Alt: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious or Amy Adams for Julie and Julia

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
-Matt Damon for Invictus
-Anthony Mackie for The Hurt Locker
-Mark Ruffalo for Shutter Island
-Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
-Christoph Waltz for Inglorious B******s
Alt: Billy Crudup for Public Enemies or Richard Kind for A Serious Man

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
-Mo'Nique for Precious
-Penelope Cruz for Nine
-Judi Dench for Nine
-Rachel Weisz for The Lovely Bones
-Michelle Williams for Shutter Island
Alt: Marion Cotilard for Nne or Public Enemies

Best Writing (Original)
-(500) Days of Summer by Scott Neustadterm, and Michael H. Weber
-Away We Go by Dave Eggers, and Vendela Vida
-Funny People by Judd Apatow
-The Hurt Locker by Mark Boal
-Up by Bob Peterson
Alt: Whatever Works by Woody Allen or Bright Star by Jane Campion

Best Writing (Adapted)
-An Education by Nick Hornby
-Invictus by Anthony Peckham
-The Lovely Bones by Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh, and Philippa Boynes
-Precious by Darrien Paul
-Shutter Island by Laeta Kalogridis
Alt: Nine by Anthony Minghella, and Michael Tolkin or Star Trek by Roberto Orci, and Alex Kurtzman

Best Animated Feature Film
-A Christmas Carol dir: Robert Zemeckis
-Coraline dir. Henry Selick
-Up dir. Peter Docter
(-The Princess and the Frog dir. Rom Clements)
(-Ponyo dir. Hayao Mizayaki)
Alt: The Fantastic Mr. Fox dir. Wes Anderson or 9 dir. Shane Acker

Best Film Editing
-Avatar
-Green Zone
-Nine
-Public Enemies
-Shutter Island
Alt: Invictus or The Lovely Bones

Best Cinematography
-Amelia
-The Hurt Locker
-Nine
-Public Enemies
-Shutter Island
Alt: Invictus or The Informant

Best Art Direction
-Amelia
-Avatar
-The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
-Invictus
-Nine
Alt: The Lovely Bones or The Wolf Man

Best Costume Design
-Amelia
-Cheri
-Nine
-Sherlock Holmes
-The Young Victoria
Alt: Publc Enemies or Invictus

Best Original Music (Score)
-Amelia
-Avatar
-Public Enemies
-Star Trek
-Up
Alt: The Princess and the Frog or Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Best Original Music (Song)
-Fame
-The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
(-Nine)
(-Precious)
(-The Princess and the Frog)
Alt: Nine or Coraline

Best Sound (Mixing)
-Avatar
-Green Zone
-Star Trek
-Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
-Up
Alt: Public Enemies or Nine

Best Sound (Editing)
-Amelia
-Avatar
-Public Enemies
-Terminator Salvation
-Up
Alt: Star Trek or Nine

Best Make Up
-The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
-Star Trek
-The Wolf Man
Alt: Avatar or The Lovely Bones

Best Visual Effects
-Avatar
-Star Trek
-Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Alt: Where the Wild Things Are or Terminator Salvation

-(500) Days of Summer 1 nomination
-A Christmas Carol 1 nomination
-Amelia 7 nominations
-An Education 2 nominations
-Avatar 8 nominations
-Away We Go 1 nomination
-Broken Embraces 1 nomination
-Cheri 2 nominations
-Coraline 1 nomination
-Fame 1 nomination
-Funny People 1 nomination
-Green Zone 2 nominations
-The Hurt Locker 5 nominations
-The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus 3 nominations
-Inglorious Basterds 1 nomination
-Invictus 5 nominations
-The Lovely Bones 7 nominations
-Nine 8 nominations
-Ponyo 1 nomination
-Precious 5 nominations
-The Princess and the Frog 2 nominations
-Public Enemies 6 nominations
-Sherlock Holmes 1 nomination
-Shutter Island 8 nominations
-Star Trek 4 nominations
-Terminator Salvation 1 nomination
-Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen 2 nominations
-Up 6 nominations
-The Wolf Man 1 nomination
-The Young Victoria 1 nomination